Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200729 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    172.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  25.4  25.8  25.7  21.2  16.0  28.3  28.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0  15.0  14.0  10.0  10.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 117.9 120.1 117.9 109.4 109.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  14.0   6.0   7.0  14.0   8.0 100.0 100.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  61.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.1%        1.4%