Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    174.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.4  26.7  28.0  25.6  20.3  20.3  20.3  20.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  18.0  15.0  16.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1 125.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  10.0   1.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        1.4%        1.7%