Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200729 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.80    176.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  27.5  26.4  23.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  12.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3 127.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0   0.0 -11.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  46.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   6.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.5%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        2.7%        2.7%