Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP082020 200730 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    178.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  23.7  20.7  15.6  19.9  17.6  24.5  19.3  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  14.0   7.0   5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 122.9 120.7  89.6  50.0  34.1  23.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     4.0  -8.0  28.0 -16.0   5.0  36.0  16.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  51.0  50.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  15.0  16.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.6%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%