Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  17.4  20.3  20.8  21.0  11.3  16.0  16.2  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  37.0  36.0  29.0  15.0  11.0   4.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 127.3 101.2  72.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0 107.0  41.0  52.0  34.0  30.0  29.0  43.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  80.0  77.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0  -6.0 -10.0  -9.0  -5.0   2.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.1%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       25.0%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       11.5%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%       11.5%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       11.5%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       29.6%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       12.4%        8.2%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%       18.3%       15.3%
 70kt / 48h        5.4%       15.8%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.5%       18.4%       12.9%