Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    103.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.6  19.4  20.9  13.5  13.9  12.3  16.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  34.0  28.0  18.0  12.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 107.4  77.2  55.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  55.0  51.0  39.0  39.0  61.0  28.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0 -12.0 -11.0 -11.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        5.6%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h       13.6%       35.7%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       19.3%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       19.3%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       18.8%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.2%       42.0%       26.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.3%       22.0%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.9%       23.2%       19.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.9%       22.2%       14.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%       17.7%       11.6%