Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    105.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  23.0  19.6  14.1  14.3  14.4  16.7  21.4  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  17.0  13.0  11.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 119.3 114.6  99.4  73.0  49.8  44.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  25.0  15.0  36.0  44.0  15.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0 -10.0  -8.0  -9.0  -8.0   2.0   0.0  15.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.5%       10.5%        9.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.5%       46.3%       34.4%
 30kt / 24h       14.0%       34.0%       24.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       34.0%       22.9%
 40kt / 24h        5.2%       33.1%       19.1%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       46.6%       30.1%
 55kt / 36h        7.6%       28.7%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        4.5%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%       15.6%       10.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        6.2%        3.3%