Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  20.3  14.7  13.1  15.7  15.7  22.7  24.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 107.0 102.3  97.9  76.2  46.7  33.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  35.0  45.0  58.0   3.0  25.0   7.0  31.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0 -10.0 -13.0  -6.0   6.0   8.0  13.0  N  F  F VF  F  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.2%       16.5%       19.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.7%       49.4%       40.6%
 30kt / 24h       25.0%       43.8%       34.4%
 35kt / 24h       21.5%       43.8%       32.7%
 40kt / 24h       20.5%       43.8%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       17.8%       37.1%       27.4%
 55kt / 36h       11.4%       21.4%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        5.1%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.1%        8.9%        7.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%