Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  15.3  12.9  16.0  15.2  20.8  26.7  25.6  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.0 102.3  97.9  87.4  58.6  37.7  31.8  27.4  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  55.0  71.0  58.0  10.0  31.0  12.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  64.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  57.0  53.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -9.0 -11.0 -12.0   1.0   4.0  15.0   9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.9%        9.7%       10.8%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       32.5%       25.1%
 30kt / 24h       13.4%       24.2%       18.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.2%       24.2%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h       12.2%       24.2%       18.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%       19.6%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        5.0%        9.2%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        2.2%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%