Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    109.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     76.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.9  11.7  14.7  14.7  17.0  25.4  23.8  22.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 104.3  88.6  73.0  45.4  32.7  25.9  23.3  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  52.0  50.0  13.0  23.0  10.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  46.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -9.0  -9.0  -3.0   2.0  11.0  10.0   5.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.7%       23.2%       21.9%
 25kt / 24h       30.1%       48.8%       39.5%
 30kt / 24h       21.2%       44.4%       32.8%
 35kt / 24h       20.7%       44.4%       32.5%
 40kt / 24h       12.8%       42.8%       27.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.4%       26.9%       18.1%
 55kt / 36h        5.8%       15.4%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%