Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  15.2  15.2  16.0  23.7  23.6  25.1  21.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.0  81.5  68.0  53.0  32.0  22.8  19.1  17.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  31.0  10.0  12.0  14.0   2.0   0.0  19.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  45.0  39.0  N  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -5.0  -2.0   3.0  14.0  12.0  10.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.8%       19.5%       21.1%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       28.7%       23.2%
 30kt / 24h       14.5%       23.2%       18.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.3%       23.2%       18.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.9%       22.6%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       10.9%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        5.2%        4.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%