Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    111.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.6  14.8  20.0  22.3  23.8  19.7  26.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  57.7  45.0  32.9  18.7  12.4  10.0   7.6  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  16.0   4.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0  13.0  13.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  46.0  44.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   1.0   5.0   9.0  11.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.1%       10.8%       15.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%        9.7%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        6.1%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%        6.1%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.7%        5.9%        5.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons