Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  23.8  24.1  21.1  24.2  23.2  29.2  34.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.9   8.8   2.8  -0.9  -5.0 -10.3 -14.8 -18.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  -5.0  -1.0   1.0  14.0  26.0  -7.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  56.0  53.0  45.0  39.0  32.0  27.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   1.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons