Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP092020 200812 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    116.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  23.6  21.1  23.0  22.7  26.5  33.9  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         14.8   8.7   5.0   1.6  -2.4  -7.3 -12.2 -12.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   4.0  15.0  10.0  18.0   0.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  52.0  48.0  41.0  36.0  30.0  30.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  12.0   8.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   5.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons