Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    130.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     58.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.0  24.1  28.8  26.5  25.9  27.1  22.5  21.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 118.6 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   5.0   9.0  -5.0  34.0   8.0   1.0 -16.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  56.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%