Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    131.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.4  26.6  25.8  28.3  23.8  20.1  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 122.9 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  37.0  31.0  40.0  13.0  16.0   2.0  18.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  54.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%        2.1%        1.7%