Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     67.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  30.3  28.3  27.3  22.5  20.4  21.3  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  13.0  12.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  11.0 -18.0 -15.0 -17.0 -20.0   1.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  53.0  51.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%