Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200816 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    133.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  29.0  25.0  23.5  20.1  21.1  21.5  22.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  11.0  13.0  13.0  12.0  11.0  10.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   3.0   9.0  -9.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  53.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%