Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    134.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     34.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.7  25.1  21.9  21.4  19.5  20.1  13.6  16.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  12.0  10.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 121.5 119.4 121.5 123.6 125.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0 -24.0 -18.0   6.0 -15.0  14.0  17.0 -14.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  55.0  52.0  54.0  55.0  57.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%