Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP102020 200817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     42.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  21.2  18.0  16.4  13.7  13.8  15.4  14.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  15.0  19.0  13.0   8.0  10.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 121.5 119.4 119.4 117.4 121.5 127.9 130.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  -5.0  19.0  20.0  24.0 -24.0 -19.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.0%        3.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        2.7%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.4%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%        6.8%        5.4%