Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200816 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     96.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  14.8  14.2  14.8  13.4  12.4  16.0  14.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  24.0  52.0  48.0  34.0  26.0  25.0  15.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   121.0 123.0 127.0 110.0 103.0 115.0 148.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.9%       40.3%       28.1%
 30kt / 24h        6.2%       21.5%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       21.5%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       20.9%       11.2%
 45kt / 36h       17.7%       54.2%       36.0%
 55kt / 36h        7.9%       30.7%       19.3%
 55kt / 48h       38.2%       46.4%       42.3%
 70kt / 48h       18.1%       39.2%       28.7%
 65kt / 72h       45.9%       61.0%       53.4%