Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.90     98.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  16.7  18.2  14.5  16.0  11.5   9.6  10.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  51.0  44.0  38.0  29.0  23.0  19.0   5.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 113.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   126.0  95.0  99.0  93.0 127.0 137.0  96.0  75.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  79.0  78.0  75.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0 -11.0  -8.0 -11.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        6.6%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       25.6%       50.2%       37.9%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       32.4%       22.6%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       32.4%       18.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       32.4%       17.7%
 45kt / 36h       24.3%       61.2%       42.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.5%       39.0%       25.7%
 55kt / 48h       39.7%       52.5%       46.1%
 70kt / 48h       22.9%       48.3%       35.6%
 65kt / 72h       43.1%       65.2%       54.1%