Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200817 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10     99.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  23.7  19.6  17.6  11.4  12.4  10.4  10.3  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  44.0  39.0  32.0  27.0  26.0  14.0   1.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  89.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  82.0 103.0 128.0 121.0 105.0  68.0  57.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   82.0  81.0  81.0  79.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -14.0 -12.0 -11.0  -6.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0  F VF  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.0%       17.8%       16.9%
 25kt / 24h       50.6%       66.5%       58.5%
 30kt / 24h       34.4%       56.5%       45.5%
 35kt / 24h       22.0%       56.5%       39.3%
 40kt / 24h       20.4%       56.5%       38.5%
 45kt / 36h       41.0%       74.2%       57.6%
 55kt / 36h       25.9%       58.1%       42.0%
 55kt / 48h       42.9%       59.5%       51.2%
 70kt / 48h       23.8%       58.1%       41.0%
 65kt / 72h       26.2%       60.8%       43.5%