Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    101.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  20.2  15.5  13.9  11.7  10.0  11.4  16.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  38.0  31.0  29.0  23.0  21.0   7.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 102.3  72.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0 100.0 127.0 130.0 118.0 104.0  42.0  59.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  77.0  78.0  75.0  73.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -16.0 -11.0 -11.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -7.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       47.5%       35.1%       41.3%
 25kt / 24h       70.5%       81.4%       75.9%
 30kt / 24h       61.7%       80.2%       71.0%
 35kt / 24h       55.1%       80.2%       67.7%
 40kt / 24h       55.1%       80.2%       67.7%
 45kt / 36h       61.5%       82.3%       71.9%
 55kt / 36h       38.4%       72.0%       55.2%
 55kt / 48h       50.6%       70.9%       60.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.6%       66.8%       45.7%
 65kt / 72h       18.3%       54.6%       36.4%