Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200817 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  11.9  11.1   7.8   8.1   7.8  12.8  16.7  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  31.0  28.0  28.0  18.0  17.0   5.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  90.1  75.5  51.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 127.0 129.0 149.0 118.0  72.0  94.0  56.0  F  F  F VF  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  75.0  74.0  69.0  61.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0  -7.0  -8.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -7.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       67.4%       48.1%       57.8%
 25kt / 24h       87.0%       91.1%       89.1%
 30kt / 24h       87.0%       91.1%       89.1%
 35kt / 24h       87.0%       91.1%       89.1%
 40kt / 24h       87.0%       91.1%       89.1%
 45kt / 36h       79.5%       84.2%       81.9%
 55kt / 36h       58.3%       76.0%       67.1%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       74.6%       62.9%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       64.3%       44.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.9%       40.4%       28.1%