Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200817 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    103.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  11.6   7.6  12.2  11.4  13.5  16.7  22.6  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  25.0  16.0  18.0   8.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  82.3  69.4  49.3  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   132.0 129.0 138.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  62.0  61.0  F  F VF  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  61.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0 -11.0  -3.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       89.3%       68.4%       78.9%
 25kt / 24h       98.5%       96.1%       97.3%
 30kt / 24h       98.5%       96.1%       97.3%
 35kt / 24h       98.5%       96.1%       97.3%
 40kt / 24h       98.5%       96.1%       97.3%
 45kt / 36h       86.0%       84.7%       85.4%
 55kt / 36h       67.2%       77.9%       72.5%
 55kt / 48h       50.5%       68.8%       59.6%
 70kt / 48h       22.3%       54.0%       38.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%