Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200818 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.4   8.2   9.5   9.0  10.4  11.5  17.9  20.8  F VF  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  21.0  16.0  16.0  17.0   4.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  65.7  51.6  31.5   8.8  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   159.0 138.0  85.0  71.0  65.0  86.0  25.0  59.0 VF VF  F  N  N  F  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  75.0  76.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -8.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       80.0%       60.0%       70.0%
 25kt / 24h       90.1%       91.6%       90.8%
 30kt / 24h       90.1%       91.6%       90.8%
 35kt / 24h       90.1%       91.6%       90.8%
 40kt / 24h       90.1%       91.6%       90.8%
 45kt / 36h       85.6%       75.3%       80.5%
 55kt / 36h       47.1%       66.7%       56.9%
 55kt / 48h       37.0%       42.0%       39.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%