Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200818 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     84.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.1  12.1  10.6  10.5  12.1  12.1  20.3  23.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  15.0  17.0  17.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  72.0  65.1  52.4  34.3  12.9  -1.3  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0  77.0  67.0  64.0  69.0  61.0  70.0  38.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  70.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       68.0%       46.9%       57.5%
 25kt / 24h       71.3%       77.9%       74.6%
 30kt / 24h       71.3%       77.9%       74.6%
 35kt / 24h       71.3%       77.9%       74.6%
 40kt / 24h       71.3%       77.9%       74.6%
 45kt / 36h       72.1%       54.8%       63.5%
 55kt / 36h       28.5%       42.6%       35.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%