Rapid Intensification Guidance EP122020 200818 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 107.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 79.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.0 9.7 11.6 13.3 11.4 13.8 22.2 26.6 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 14.0 16.0 14.0 4.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 47.0 42.3 37.9 23.5 4.6 -15.7 -27.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 51.0 49.0 70.0 71.0 27.0 34.0 38.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 75.0 73.0 73.0 67.0 60.0 53.0 59.0 N F N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -3.0 N N N F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.4% 28.6% 43.5% 25kt / 24h 35.6% 34.0% 34.8% 30kt / 24h 31.3% 31.8% 31.6% 35kt / 24h 28.9% 31.8% 30.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%