Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200818 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  15.8  19.0  18.7  16.2  20.9  22.4  26.9  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  14.0   9.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.3  42.3  37.9  31.5  16.2  -2.8 -20.2 -30.9  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  79.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  49.0  47.0  25.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  65.0  60.0  58.0  59.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -1.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.5%       15.8%       31.1%
 25kt / 24h       19.0%       15.4%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h       17.5%       10.8%       14.2%
 35kt / 24h       15.3%       10.8%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%