Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    108.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.7  21.5  17.2  17.9  22.4  24.9  30.7  F  N  N  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  19.0  12.0   7.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         47.3  40.7  36.5  30.5  14.3  -3.3 -18.3 -30.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  69.0  57.0  67.0  48.0  39.0   8.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  65.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%