Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    109.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  21.8  19.3  21.9  22.8  20.8  25.9  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0   8.0   4.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.9  48.6  42.4  36.6  21.1   4.2 -14.1 -23.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  59.0  81.0  63.0  47.0  33.0 -11.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  68.0  65.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -8.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  F  N  F  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%