Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  20.2  24.9  23.5  21.0  21.8  28.6  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         48.6  42.4  36.6  29.4  12.2  -5.2 -20.8 -27.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  65.0  56.0  40.0  28.0  15.0  -9.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  65.0  65.0  58.0  59.0  56.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0 -10.0  -7.0   1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -4.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons