Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200819 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    109.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  24.3  24.8  25.1  21.3  27.0  25.8  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         57.4  53.5  44.4  34.6  16.7  -0.9 -10.3 -15.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    87.0  56.0  53.0  40.0  52.0 -19.0  11.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0 -11.0  -6.0   1.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0 -13.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons