Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200820 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  24.2  24.6  23.6  23.2  31.5  27.2  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.5  56.2  46.1  34.4  17.7   3.4  -3.6  -8.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  41.0  49.0  30.0 -12.0  -9.0   9.0 -14.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  60.0  55.0  56.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -9.0  -8.0  -4.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons