Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200820 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.20    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  23.4  22.7  25.4  28.1  28.1  28.3  26.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         58.0  47.7  37.2  27.9   9.1  -1.6  -7.2 -11.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  51.0  27.0  15.0 -41.0  11.0  34.0  10.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  52.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  -4.0 -12.0 -10.0  -7.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons