Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200820 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.00    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  24.5  26.6  27.0  30.1  29.1  24.7  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.0  41.7  29.8  20.9   7.7   1.7  -2.3  -4.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  25.0  40.0 -15.0   1.0  14.0   6.0  70.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  57.0  59.0  55.0  55.0  47.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0 -10.0  -5.0 -13.0  -7.0  -3.0  -1.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons