Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200820 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    112.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  27.5  28.5  31.2  30.0  30.9  31.6  39.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.7  30.7  21.6  15.4   8.4   3.7   1.3  -0.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  47.0  -3.0 -27.0  11.0  35.0  56.0  60.0  U  N  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  50.0  42.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0 -19.0  -5.0  -5.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons