Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP122020 200821 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  30.5  31.5  30.9  31.9  29.8  36.8  44.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  34.2  30.4  27.1  20.1  17.7  16.8  15.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0 -14.0   9.0  13.0  41.0  27.0  66.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  43.0  45.0  39.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -14.0 -11.0 -11.0  -9.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N VF  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons