Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200826 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.1  38.3  36.6  37.4  31.1  31.6  26.2  21.7 VU  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  21.0  25.0  29.0  15.0  11.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 106.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  72.0  81.0  43.0  27.0  46.0  56.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0 -11.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%