Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  39.8  39.8  36.9  36.3  31.6  24.1  21.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  22.0  24.0  14.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 108.5  79.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  88.0  53.0  39.0  50.0  67.0  64.0  30.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  81.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%