Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200826 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    105.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.9  42.9  37.2  40.6  35.0  28.5  23.8  25.7 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  25.0  28.0  27.0   4.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  96.2  81.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  56.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  82.0  48.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  82.0  80.0  78.0  77.0  74.0  77.0  74.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -8.0 -10.0 -14.0   2.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%