Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200827 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.7  38.9  37.8  37.2  38.5  23.0  24.6  25.8 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  26.0  29.0  29.0  19.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5  86.1  74.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  42.0  64.0  61.0  53.0  63.0  28.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -12.0  -9.0   0.0   2.0 -14.0  -9.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%