Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200827 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  39.5  36.8  35.6  25.3  23.9  23.2  27.1  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  28.0  29.0  32.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3  91.2  73.6  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  48.0  47.0  31.0  63.0  52.0  12.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  76.0  76.0  71.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -6.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0 -19.0  -6.0 -10.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%