Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200827 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  35.9  33.2  28.5  23.9  19.2  24.0  30.4  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  22.0  16.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 106.5  76.5  73.6  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  79.0  56.0  58.0  44.0  40.0  28.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  79.0  74.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -4.0  -7.0  -6.0 -16.0 -14.0  -7.0   0.0 VF  F  F  F VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.8%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%        7.5%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.2%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        6.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%