Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200827 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    106.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  32.9  28.8  30.0  26.6  26.0  32.4  32.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  16.0  11.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 122.3  94.4  78.6  84.6  84.6  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  55.0  62.0  50.0  29.0  10.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  75.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -8.0  -5.0 -11.0 -15.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0 VF  F  F  F VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.0%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%