Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200828 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  26.1  28.9  30.1  24.1  26.8  34.1  34.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  12.0   3.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 122.3 107.4  84.6  77.2  75.8  75.8  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  58.0  44.0  39.0   1.0  19.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  71.0  73.0  77.0  74.0  68.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0  -9.0 -13.0 -11.0 -13.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  F VF  F VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%