Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200828 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    106.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.2  18.2  22.0  19.0  14.6  17.3  17.3  17.3  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  23.0  25.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9  75.8  56.7  56.7  56.7  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  29.0  31.0  23.0   1.0  19.0  19.0  19.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -16.0 -15.0 -17.0 -13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F VF VF VF VF  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        3.0%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       22.3%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%       11.1%        6.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%       11.1%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        8.5%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%       18.5%        9.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        7.7%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%