Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132020 200828 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  17.1  17.3  14.7  14.7  14.7  14.7  14.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 114.4  94.3  80.8  80.8  80.8  80.8  80.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  41.0  24.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -19.0 -20.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        1.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons