Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142020 200826 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  38.5  35.7  35.2  35.6  42.9  41.8  31.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  19.0  22.0  23.0  21.0  15.0  12.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 110.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  95.0  63.0  34.0  72.0  43.0  67.0   9.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  59.0  61.0  64.0  69.0  74.0  77.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        5.5%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%